Us Multi-Regional Impact Accessment System

Models and systems

The Perryman Group maintains an extensive set of proprietary models and systems which are ideally suited to this analysis. Dr. M. Ray Perryman, founder and President of the firm, developed the key models to be used in this study in the 1970s and early 1980s and has consistently maintained, expanded, and updated them since that time. The firm also maintains an extensive set of detailed historical data and is constantly assessing the potential effects of changes in the economy.

The US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System (USMRIAS) is designed to measure the multiplier (or "ripple") effects of an economic stimulus through the economy. It has been used in hundreds of applications and public policy studies in all 50 US states and numerous countries, has been peer reviewed on numerous occasions, and enjoys an excellent reputation for reliability and credibility. The system reflects the unique industrial structure and characteristics of the United States and every local area within the country, with extensions that are applicable to countries throughout the world.

The USMRIAS is somewhat similar in format to the Input-Output Model of the United States which is maintained by the US Department of Commerce. The model developed by TPG, however, incorporates several important enhancements and refinements. Specifically, the expanded system includes (1) comprehensive 500-sector coverage for any county, multi-county, or urban region; (2) calculation of both total expenditures and value-added by industry and region; (3) direct estimation of expenditures for multiple basic input choices (expenditures, output, income, or employment); (4) extensive parameter localization; (5) price adjustments for real and nominal assessments by sectors and areas; (6) measurement of the induced impacts associated with payrolls and consumer spending; (7) embedded modules to estimate multi-sectoral direct spending effects; (8) estimation of retail spending activity by consumers; (9) full extension and integration capabilities with numerous foreign countries; and (10) comprehensive linkage and integration capabilities with a wide variety of econometric, real estate, occupational, and fiscal impact models, thus permitting dynamic simulations.

The US Multi-Regional Econometric Model provides detailed industry-level projections and is used to provide ongoing forecasts for the various regions and metropolitan areas within the United States. It is formulated in an internally consistent manner and is designed to permit the integration of relevant global, national, state, and local factors into the projection process.

The model is the result of more than four decades of continuing research in econometrics, economic theory, statistical methods, key policy issues, and behavioral patterns, as well as intensive, ongoing study of all aspects of the global, US, state, metropolitan area, and county economies. It is extensively used by scores of federal and State governmental entities on an ongoing basis, as well as hundreds of major corporations. This model has been used to produce ongoing forecasts of Texas and its regions and metropolitan areas since the early 1980s and has been extended to include any county or multi-county area in the United States.

The US Multi-Regional Industry-Occupation System translates detailed data on employment by industry (derived from the US Multi-Regional Econometric Model) into estimates of occupational categories at a highly detailed level. The modeling process begins with the industry-occupation coefficients compiled by the US Department of Labor based on extensive surveys of operating patterns in thousands of firms and other secondary sources. As an example, a typical tire plant of a given size requires machinists, mechanics, plant managers, administrative staff, custodial staff, shipping personnel, and numerous other types of workers. By compiling this information across the entire economy, a matrix is created which allows the data on employment by industry (which is regularly reported) to be translated into employment by occupation.

The US Multi-Regional Industry-Occupation System links this basic structure specifically to the economy of every metropolitan area, region, and county in the United States, accounting for productivity and production patterns in each area. It is also regularly updated to reflect evolving patterns. The system can be fully integrated with historical employment data and the projections obtained from the US Multi-Regional Econometric Model. It can also be linked to results from the US Multi-Regional Impact Assessment System.

Thus, the industry-occupation system is a flexible mechanism to allow extensive evaluations of workforce characteristics and patterns. It is highly detailed, providing results for more than 1,000 occupational categories.

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Economic indicators

Total Expenditures (Spending)

Measures the reduction the dollars changing hands as a result of the economic stimulus.

Gross Product (Output)

The production of goods and services that will not come about in each area as a result of the activity. This measure is parallel to the gross domestic product numbers commonly reported by various media outlets and is a subset of total expenditures.

Personal Income

The reduction in dollars that end up in the hands of people in the area; the vast majority of this aggregate derives from the earnings of employees, but payments such as interest and rents are also included.

Employment

Jobs are expressed on a full-time-equivalent basis.